In The Press

The fiscal restraint imposed on the world as a result of the global financial crisis has markedly curbed excessive budget deficits. Since the depths of the recession in 2010, the OECD countries have cut their overall deficits from 8.0% to 3.2% in 2015. [CHART 1] Nevertheless,...

Global equities have been on a roller coaster ride in 2016 – down 12%, then up 16% and likely to end the half year largely unchanged. [CHART 1] This heightened volatility will probably become one of the many ‘new normals’ in the post global recession environment. We are,...

Investors had to work their way through a tumultuous first quarter as widespread forecasts of an imminent global recession gathered momentum – despite no meaningful evidence that the slower world growth was anything more than a temporary slowdown. The impact on equities was severe with...

Talk about a perfect storm!! The tragi-comedy that is South Africa deteriorated into a horror story as our self-serving President did the unthinkable by firing the wellrespected finance minister and appointing a lowly lap-dog in his stead. It could hardly have come at a worse...

The past year was a roller-coastal ride for global markets. The start of the year was dominated by resurgent fears of a recession in the US, with inevitable international repercussions. This triggered a dramatic plunge in sentiment worldwide, manifesting itself in tumbling equity prices. The MSCI...

We have for some time cautioned investors that future returns from equities will not match those of the past. It is probably worthwhile to expand on the reasons for this. At the macro economic level, the Great Recession has indelibly focused governments and central banks...

The feature of the first quarter of 2015 has undoubtedly been the dramatic collapse in sovereign bond yields which have now declined into negative territory in no less than 10 countries in Europe. Steep declines in inflation rates have permitted the European Central Bank to...

The fracking revolution has been transforming the dynamics of the oil market for several years now, adding materially to world production. However, it has taken a surprisingly long time for the global oil price to recognise this. When it finally reached the tipping point, the...

Currency markets have featured in the recent past. The trade-weighted dollar is up 9% since the beginning of May, advancing against all other major currencies to a 4-year high [CHART 1]. Reasons include the more robust growth in the US, and the benefit to its...